EU countries remain the main suppliers of diesel fuel to the Ukrainian market. Compared to last year, their share of total fuel imports has remained unchanged, although some EU countries have significantly reduced supplies. Read about this in the article by Ivan Marchenkov, analyst at A-95 Consulting Group, and Sergey Kuyun, director of A-95 Consulting Group LLC, " Diesel with an Elephant: How India Conquered the Ukrainian and European Markets."
Greek refineries, which were the leaders last year, fell almost in half, to 600 thousand tons.
Tellingly, one of the key reasons was an inflexible pricing policy, or more precisely, the Greeks' sense that they had no alternative to Ukraine after the sanctions against their main competitor in the region, Turkey. The market does not forgive such mistakes, " the authors write.
The Germans also suffered losses. From January to August, imports fell almost fourfold, to 34,000 tons.
" We couldn't maintain volumes due to pricing, as the Lithuanians, Swedes, and Poles were trading at a lower price. Furthermore, a significant share of German diesel is sold from Polish oil depots by road, making sales less competitive compared to rail. Consequently, the presence of Total, PCK Schwedt, and Holborn in the Ukrainian market has diminished, " they explained.
At the same time, ORLEN, which controls Polish refineries and the Lithuanian refinery in Mazeikiai, the oldest foreign supplier of petroleum products to Ukraine, grew. Consequently, the Polish concern increased exports to Ukraine by 14% to 842,000 tons. This can be attributed to the arrival of Ireneusz Fafara, the longtime head of the aforementioned Lithuanian refinery, to the helm of ORLEN. He has a good understanding of the Ukrainian market landscape and is personally acquainted with the top executives of the largest Ukrainian operators. One of these is Serhiy Koretskyi, who then headed WOG, then Ukrnafta since 2022, and then Naftogaz Ukrainy since May of this year. Ukrnafta has recently become one of Orlen's largest Ukrainian counterparties. Cooperation with Naftogaz Ukrainy has begun with natural gas.
"This year, American diesel has become less available. Over the past eight months, imports of 'freedom molecules' have fallen by almost 40% to 251,000 tons. Polish traders noted that fuel from the US wasn't always attractive to them, as there were more favorable options on the market. At the same time, American producers have increased sales to South American countries," they added.
Imports from the Middle East plummeted even more significantly, threefold to 182,000 tons. Producers from Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia were forced to expand into the Mediterranean due to India's increased activity.
As a result, Indian fuel imports to Ukraine increased from 73,000 to 453,000 tons over the first eight months. The heaviest volumes arrived in July and August, when companies purchased over 200,000 tons, bringing their market share close to 20%.
Other articles by Sergei Kuyun can be found here, and by Ivan Marchenkov here.