Global demand for thermal coal in the world will grow until 2030 and reach 7.01 billion tons per year. Roman Bilousov spoke about this in the study “Coal: The Near Future” by Evenor Energy SA .
The study notes that in the base scenario (maintaining GDP growth rates in developing countries, stagnation or lack of growth in developed countries and a moderate level of energy prices), by this time the demand for coal will increase by 3% compared to the level of 2021, or by almost 200 million tons per year. But by 2050, the trend will change to the opposite: consumption will decrease by 38% compared to the 2021 level to 4.24 billion tons.
According to analysts, the determining factor for the dynamics of global demand for energy coal will be its consumption in China. It will grow until 2035, until the country completes its transition to the stage of a developed economy. After 2035, industrial consumption in China will begin to fall while maintaining the historical trend towards increasing energy efficiency. The share of industry in China's GDP structure will decrease from 33 to 24% by 2050. Thus, China will experience the most significant decline in energy coal consumption.
Global consumption of coking (metallurgical) coal, on the contrary, will grow throughout the entire period due to active growth in demand in India and other developing countries in Asia. By 2050 it will reach 1.1 billion tons (+18% by 2021) in the base scenario. Total demand for coal (thermal and coking) will increase by 3% compared to the 2021 level to 7.9 billion tons, and by 2050 will decrease by 31% to 5.3 billion tons.
These estimates exceed those of the International Energy Agency (IEA). In October 2022, the IEA, in its World Energy Outlook, expected that global coal demand could fall to 5.15 billion tons by 2030, and to 3.8 billion tons by 2050.
In 2021, according to the IEA, the consumption of coal of all types in the world amounted to 5.6 billion tons, and according to Evenor Energy SA, the demand for energy coal amounted to 6.8 billion tons, for coking coal – 908 million tons. Roman Bilousov explains, that the forecasts of international agencies are largely of a “motivational nature”, and the company’s research is based on forecasts for individual countries and their plans “to meet energy needs, economic growth and achieve social goals.”
